NFL · spread · Published system
Dogs after scoring 6 or fewer
Underdog that scored 6 or fewer points in its last game. Bet: back them on the spread.
43-36-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +4.1%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 43-36-2 (n=79), won 54.4% (95% range 43.5% to 65.0%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +4.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 25-22-1, +1.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 18-14-1, +7.4%
- 2021-22
- 8-10 (n=18), ROI -15.1%
- 2022-23
- 7-5 (n=12), ROI +11.2%
- 2023-24
- 10-7-1 (n=17), ROI +13.2%
- 2024-25
- 6-9-1 (n=15), ROI -23.6%
- 2025-26
- 12-5 (n=17), ROI +34.8%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.