NFL · spread · Published system
Dogs of 3+ off a 20+ point loss
Underdog of 3 or more after losing its last game by 20+. Bet: back them on the spread.
80-68-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +3.1%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 80-68-2 (n=148), won 54.0% (95% range 46.0% to 61.9%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +3.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 43-35-1, +5.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 37-33-1, +1.0%
- 2021-22
- 22-14 (n=36), ROI +16.3%
- 2022-23
- 12-8 (n=20), ROI +14.2%
- 2023-24
- 9-13-1 (n=22), ROI -21.7%
- 2024-25
- 12-15-1 (n=27), ROI -14.8%
- 2025-26
- 18-16 (n=34), ROI +1.1%
- 2026-27
- 7-2 (n=9), ROI +48.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.