NFL · spread · Published system
Double-digit favorites (-10 to -14)
Favorite closing between -10 and -14. Bet: back them on the spread.
67-58-4 since 2021, ROI after the vig +2.2%.
Published system — made money in 2024-25 to 2025-26 after the vig but lost in 2021-22 to 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 67-58-4 (n=125), won 53.6% (95% range 44.9% to 62.1%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +2.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 42-41-3, -3.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 25-17-1, +13.7%
- 2021-22
- 22-15-2 (n=37), ROI +12.9%
- 2022-23
- 9-16 (n=25), ROI -31.0%
- 2023-24
- 11-10-1 (n=21), ROI -0.0%
- 2024-25
- 10-6 (n=16), ROI +19.4%
- 2025-26
- 15-11-1 (n=26), ROI +10.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.