NFL · spread · Published system
Fade bad offense laying points to bad defense
Favorite averaging 19 or less vs a defense allowing 27+: bet against. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
19-12 since 2021, ROI after the vig +17.0%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (31 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 19-12 (n=31), won 61.3% (95% range 43.8% to 76.3%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +17.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 10-7, +11.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 9-5, +23.6%
- 2021-22
- 5-2 (n=7), ROI +35.2%
- 2022-23
- 1-3 (n=4), ROI -52.2%
- 2023-24
- 4-2 (n=6), ROI +26.6%
- 2024-25
- 5-1 (n=6), ROI +62.1%
- 2025-26
- 4-4 (n=8), ROI -5.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.