NFL · spread · Published system
Fade early-season blowout winners
Team game number 2-7; previous game won by 30+. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
12-8 since 2021, ROI after the vig +14.7%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (20 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 12-8 (n=20), won 60.0% (95% range 38.7% to 78.1%); break-even 52.1%; ROI after the vig +14.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 6-4, +14.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 6-4, +14.8%
- 2021-22
- 1-2 (n=3), ROI -37.9%
- 2022-23
- 1-1 (n=2), ROI -4.5%
- 2023-24
- 4-1 (n=5), ROI +53.9%
- 2024-25
- 2-2 (n=4), ROI -4.4%
- 2025-26
- 4-2 (n=6), ROI +27.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.