NFL · spread · Published system
Fade favorites that lost but covered
Lost last game but covered; favored now: bet against. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
35-25 since 2021, ROI after the vig +11.7%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 35-25 (n=60), won 58.3% (95% range 45.7% to 69.9%); break-even 52.1%; ROI after the vig +11.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 21-18, +3.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 14-7, +27.8%
- 2021-22
- 5-5 (n=10), ROI -3.7%
- 2022-23
- 11-9 (n=20), ROI +5.3%
- 2023-24
- 5-4 (n=9), ROI +5.7%
- 2024-25
- 8-5 (n=13), ROI +18.8%
- 2025-26
- 6-2 (n=8), ROI +42.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.