NFL · spread · Published system
Fade high-scoring road teams
Road/neutral team averaging over 31 PPG: bet against. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
21-12-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +21.7%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (33 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 21-12-1 (n=33), won 63.6% (95% range 46.6% to 77.8%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +21.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 12-5, +34.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 9-7-1, +8.0%
- 2021-22
- 6-5 (n=11), ROI +3.3%
- 2022-23
- 1-0 (n=1), ROI +94.8%
- 2023-24
- 5-0 (n=5), ROI +91.4%
- 2024-25
- 5-4 (n=9), ROI +8.1%
- 2025-26
- 4-3-1 (n=7), ROI +7.8%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.