NFL · spread · Published system
Fade home dogs with the better record
Home underdog whose win pct is .100+ better: bet against. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
15-9 since 2021, ROI after the vig +18.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (24 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 15-9 (n=24), won 62.5% (95% range 42.7% to 78.8%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +18.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 8-3, +38.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 7-6, +2.5%
- 2021-22
- 1-2 (n=3), ROI -36.4%
- 2022-23
- 3-1 (n=4), ROI +42.4%
- 2023-24
- 4-0 (n=4), ROI +89.7%
- 2024-25
- 3-3 (n=6), ROI -5.4%
- 2025-26
- 4-3 (n=7), ROI +9.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.