NFL · spread · Published system
Fade home favorites with a bad Pythagorean
Home favorite with Pythagorean under .35 (4+ games): bet against. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
29-22 since 2021, ROI after the vig +8.6%.
Published system — made money in 2024-25 to 2026-27 after the vig but lost in 2021-22 to 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 29-22 (n=51), won 56.9% (95% range 43.3% to 69.5%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +8.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 14-13, -1.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 15-9, +20.3%
- 2021-22
- 4-3 (n=7), ROI +7.8%
- 2022-23
- 4-4 (n=8), ROI -5.6%
- 2023-24
- 6-6 (n=12), ROI -5.0%
- 2024-25
- 7-3 (n=10), ROI +35.1%
- 2025-26
- 7-5 (n=12), ROI +12.5%
- 2026-27
- 1-1 (n=2), ROI -6.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.