NFL · spread · Published system
Fade late-season home win streaks vs division
Post-Thanksgiving home team on a 3+ game win streak, not favored by 7+, vs a division rival. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
15-10-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +14.6%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (25 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 15-10-1 (n=25), won 60.0% (95% range 40.7% to 76.6%); break-even 52.2%; ROI after the vig +14.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 9-5, +23.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 6-5-1, +3.6%
- 2021-22
- 3-1 (n=4), ROI +42.4%
- 2022-23
- 3-3 (n=6), ROI -4.7%
- 2023-24
- 3-1 (n=4), ROI +46.4%
- 2024-25
- 1-2-1 (n=3), ROI -35.2%
- 2025-26
- 5-3 (n=8), ROI +18.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.