NFL · spread · Published system
Fade lucky ATS teams with a negative differential
Game 9 on: team outscored on the season but over .500 ATS. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
66-59-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +0.7%.
Published system — made money in 2024-25 to 2025-26 after the vig but lost in 2021-22 to 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 66-59-2 (n=125), won 52.8% (95% range 44.1% to 61.3%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +0.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 41-39-1, -2.2%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 25-20-1, +5.9%
- 2021-22
- 9-6 (n=15), ROI +13.7%
- 2022-23
- 16-21 (n=37), ROI -16.9%
- 2023-24
- 16-12-1 (n=28), ROI +8.8%
- 2024-25
- 10-9-1 (n=19), ROI +0.3%
- 2025-26
- 15-11 (n=26), ROI +9.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.