NFL · spread · Published system
Fade non-conference dogs off a 20+ loss
Lost last game by 20+; non-conference underdog: bet against. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
32-25-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +7.6%.
Published system — made money in 2024-25 to 2026-27 after the vig but lost in 2021-22 to 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 32-25-1 (n=57), won 56.1% (95% range 43.3% to 68.2%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +7.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 12-12-1, -4.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 20-13, +16.2%
- 2021-22
- 5-4 (n=9), ROI +6.0%
- 2022-23
- 2-5 (n=7), ROI -45.7%
- 2023-24
- 5-3-1 (n=8), ROI +20.3%
- 2024-25
- 13-4 (n=17), ROI +45.9%
- 2025-26
- 7-8 (n=15), ROI -9.7%
- 2026-27
- 0-1 (n=1), ROI -100.0%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.