NFL · spread · Published system
Fade post-bye home teams vs non-conference
Home team coming out of its bye vs a non-conference opponent. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
19-13-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +13.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (32 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 19-13-1 (n=32), won 59.4% (95% range 42.3% to 74.5%); break-even 52.2%; ROI after the vig +13.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 12-7-1, +20.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 7-6, +4.2%
- 2021-22
- 3-0 (n=3), ROI +88.2%
- 2022-23
- 5-3 (n=8), ROI +19.4%
- 2023-24
- 4-4-1 (n=8), ROI -4.2%
- 2024-25
- 4-2 (n=6), ROI +29.0%
- 2025-26
- 3-4 (n=7), ROI -17.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.