NFL · spread · Published system
Fade SNF 30+ PPG offenses vs lesser offenses
Sunday night team averaging 30+ PPG vs an opponent that does not. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
16-4 since 2021, ROI after the vig +52.2%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig on a small sample (20 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 16-4 (n=20), won 80.0% (95% range 58.4% to 91.9%); break-even 52.7%; ROI after the vig +52.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 9-3, +43.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 7-1, +65.6%
- 2021-22
- 4-1 (n=5), ROI +54.1%
- 2022-23
- 2-0 (n=2), ROI +90.6%
- 2023-24
- 3-2 (n=5), ROI +13.5%
- 2024-25
- 2-1 (n=3), ROI +25.5%
- 2025-26
- 3-0 (n=3), ROI +88.3%
- 2026-27
- 2-0 (n=2), ROI +91.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.