NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Fade teams off a 20+ point win, 1H
Regular season: bet against a team off a win by 20 or more, 1H spread. Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
75-59 since 2023, ROI after the vig +7.4%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 75-59 (n=134), won 56.0% (95% range 47.5% to 64.1%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +7.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 24-20, +5.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 51-39, +8.3%
- 2023-24
- 24-20 (n=44), ROI +5.4%
- 2024-25
- 21-24 (n=45), ROI -10.9%
- 2025-26
- 30-15 (n=45), ROI +27.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.