NFL · spread · Published system
Fade weak offenses on the road late
After Thanksgiving, road team averaging under 19 PPG. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
62-48-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +7.7%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 62-48-2 (n=110), won 56.4% (95% range 47.0% to 65.3%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +7.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 43-32-2, +9.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 19-16, +3.7%
- 2021-22
- 17-7-1 (n=24), ROI +34.7%
- 2022-23
- 16-12-1 (n=28), ROI +9.4%
- 2023-24
- 10-13 (n=23), ROI -16.7%
- 2024-25
- 13-8 (n=21), ROI +18.4%
- 2025-26
- 6-8 (n=14), ROI -18.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.