NFL · spread · Published system
Fade Week 16+ middling teams vs weaker foes
Week 16 or later: team at .400-.600 vs an opponent .080-.250 worse. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
22-7-3 since 2021, ROI after the vig +44.0%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (29 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 22-7-3 (n=29), won 75.9% (95% range 57.9% to 87.8%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +44.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 13-5-2, +36.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 9-2-1, +56.4%
- 2021-22
- 2-2-1 (n=4), ROI -5.0%
- 2022-23
- 6-1 (n=7), ROI +63.7%
- 2023-24
- 5-2-1 (n=7), ROI +32.7%
- 2024-25
- 7-2 (n=9), ROI +49.0%
- 2025-26
- 2-0-1 (n=2), ROI +89.8%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.