NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Fast starter (+3 1H), division game: 1H spread
Fast starter (+3 1H), division game: 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"min": 3}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "matchup.divisionGame": true} Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
56-37-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +14.5%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 56-37-1 (n=93), won 60.2% (95% range 50.0% to 69.6%); break-even 52.7%; ROI after the vig +14.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 23-11, +28.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 33-26-1, +6.4%
- 2023-24
- 23-11 (n=34), ROI +28.5%
- 2024-25
- 20-14-1 (n=34), ROI +11.2%
- 2025-26
- 13-12 (n=25), ROI -0.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.