NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Fast starter (+3 1H), off a bye: 1H spread
Fast starter (+3 1H), off a bye: 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"min": 3}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "schedule.offBye": true} Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
19-7 since 2023, ROI after the vig +39.1%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig on a small sample (26 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 19-7 (n=26), won 73.1% (95% range 53.9% to 86.3%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +39.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 4-3, +9.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 15-4, +49.8%
- 2023-24
- 4-3 (n=7), ROI +9.8%
- 2024-25
- 7-1 (n=8), ROI +65.3%
- 2025-26
- 8-3 (n=11), ROI +38.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.