NFL · spread · MoneyLine system
Fast starter (+3 1H) with a losing record: fade full-game spread
Fast starter (+3 1H) with a losing record: fade full-game spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"min": 3}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "form.seasonWinPct": {"lt": 0.5}} Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
29-24 since 2021, ROI after the vig +4.2%.
MoneyLine system — made money in 2024-25 to 2026-27 after the vig but lost in 2021-22 to 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 29-24 (n=53), won 54.7% (95% range 41.4% to 67.3%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +4.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 13-13, -5.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 16-11, +13.0%
- 2021-22
- 4-6 (n=10), ROI -23.9%
- 2022-23
- 1-5 (n=6), ROI -68.5%
- 2023-24
- 8-2 (n=10), ROI +52.0%
- 2024-25
- 10-6 (n=16), ROI +19.6%
- 2025-26
- 5-4 (n=9), ROI +5.0%
- 2026-27
- 1-1 (n=2), ROI -4.5%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.