NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Fast starter (+3) as a favorite: 1H spread
Fast starter (+3) as a favorite: 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"min": 3}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "line.spread": {"lt": 0}} Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
136-110-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +5.5%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 136-110-1 (n=246), won 55.3% (95% range 49.0% to 61.4%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +5.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 51-37, +10.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 85-73-1, +2.9%
- 2023-24
- 51-37 (n=88), ROI +10.0%
- 2024-25
- 51-30 (n=81), ROI +19.8%
- 2025-26
- 34-43-1 (n=77), ROI -14.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.