NFL · spread_h1 · MoneyLine system
Fast starter (+3) vs slow starter (-3): 1H spread
Fast starter (+3) vs slow starter (-3): 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"min": 3}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "opponent.derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"max": -3}} Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
49-39-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +5.7%.
MoneyLine system — made money in 2024-25 to 2026-27 after the vig but lost in 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 49-39-1 (n=88), won 55.7% (95% range 45.3% to 65.6%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +5.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 15-17, -11.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 34-22-1, +15.6%
- 2023-24
- 15-17 (n=32), ROI -11.8%
- 2024-25
- 17-9 (n=26), ROI +24.1%
- 2025-26
- 16-12-1 (n=28), ROI +9.6%
- 2026-27
- 1-1 (n=2), ROI -9.7%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.