NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Favorite off an upset loss as a big favorite, 1H
Previous game lost as a 7+ favorite; now favored again: 1H spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
20-11 since 2023, ROI after the vig +22.9%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig on a small sample (31 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 20-11 (n=31), won 64.5% (95% range 46.9% to 78.9%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +22.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 8-3, +37.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 12-8, +15.1%
- 2023-24
- 8-3 (n=11), ROI +37.1%
- 2024-25
- 8-1 (n=9), ROI +70.6%
- 2025-26
- 4-7 (n=11), ROI -30.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.