NFL · spread · Published system
Home dog with a worse Pythagorean (-.2)
NFL home dog with a worse Pythagorean (-.2), 4+ games: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
101-81-6 since 2021, ROI after the vig +6.3%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 101-81-6 (n=182), won 55.5% (95% range 48.2% to 62.5%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +6.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 58-42-4, +10.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 43-39-2, +0.6%
- 2021-22
- 23-18 (n=41), ROI +6.6%
- 2022-23
- 19-9-1 (n=28), ROI +30.4%
- 2023-24
- 16-15-3 (n=31), ROI -0.9%
- 2024-25
- 19-23-1 (n=42), ROI -13.3%
- 2025-26
- 19-15 (n=34), ROI +7.0%
- 2026-27
- 5-1-1 (n=6), ROI +61.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.