NFL · spread · Published system
Home favorite on Sunday after a Monday game
NFL home favorite playing Sunday on 5 or fewer days rest (played the Monday before): team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
37-24 since 2021, ROI after the vig +15.6%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 37-24 (n=61), won 60.7% (95% range 48.1% to 71.9%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +15.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 22-15, +13.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 15-9, +18.8%
- 2021-22
- 7-5 (n=12), ROI +11.2%
- 2022-23
- 5-4 (n=9), ROI +6.7%
- 2023-24
- 10-6 (n=16), ROI +19.1%
- 2024-25
- 6-4 (n=10), ROI +16.2%
- 2025-26
- 9-5 (n=14), ROI +20.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.