NFL · spread · Published system
Home favorite vs an eliminated opponent
NFL home favorite facing an eliminated team: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
38-26 since 2021, ROI after the vig +12.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 38-26 (n=64), won 59.4% (95% range 47.1% to 70.5%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +12.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 17-14, +4.2%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 21-12, +21.0%
- 2021-22
- 9-3 (n=12), ROI +42.1%
- 2022-23
- 3-7 (n=10), ROI -42.5%
- 2023-24
- 5-4 (n=9), ROI +5.5%
- 2024-25
- 11-6 (n=17), ROI +23.2%
- 2025-26
- 10-6 (n=16), ROI +18.8%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.