NFL · spread · Published system
Home favorite with a better Pythagorean (+.2)
NFL home favorite with a better Pythagorean (+.2), 4+ games: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
106-86-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +5.4%.
Published system — made money in 2024-25 to 2026-27 after the vig but lost in 2021-22 to 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 106-86-2 (n=192), won 55.2% (95% range 48.1% to 62.1%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +5.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 58-53-2, -0.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 48-33, +13.4%
- 2021-22
- 26-19-2 (n=45), ROI +9.7%
- 2022-23
- 11-14 (n=25), ROI -15.7%
- 2023-24
- 21-20 (n=41), ROI -2.1%
- 2024-25
- 26-14 (n=40), ROI +24.8%
- 2025-26
- 21-16 (n=37), ROI +8.1%
- 2026-27
- 1-3 (n=4), ROI -51.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.