NFL · spread · Published system
Hot home favorites in non-division conference games
Won 4+ straight; non-division conference home favorite of 3+: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
16-8 since 2021, ROI after the vig +26.5%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (24 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 16-8 (n=24), won 66.7% (95% range 46.7% to 82.0%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +26.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 10-3, +46.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 6-5, +3.1%
- 2021-22
- 4-2 (n=6), ROI +26.2%
- 2022-23
- 4-0 (n=4), ROI +91.8%
- 2023-24
- 2-1 (n=3), ROI +25.7%
- 2024-25
- 2-2 (n=4), ROI -5.7%
- 2025-26
- 4-3 (n=7), ROI +8.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.