NFL · spread · Published system
Late-season better-record favorite 3+
After Thanksgiving: team with a better record (by at least one win) favored by 3+. Bet: back them on the spread.
172-147-7 since 2021, ROI after the vig +2.7%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 172-147-7 (n=319), won 53.9% (95% range 48.4% to 59.3%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +2.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 108-92-4, +2.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 64-55-3, +2.4%
- 2021-22
- 45-29-1 (n=74), ROI +15.5%
- 2022-23
- 35-34 (n=69), ROI -3.0%
- 2023-24
- 28-29-3 (n=57), ROI -6.4%
- 2024-25
- 35-24-3 (n=59), ROI +13.4%
- 2025-26
- 29-31 (n=60), ROI -8.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.