NFL · spread · Published system
Late-season road dogs with good offense vs good defense
Nov-Jan, road dog averaging 26+ vs defense allowing 20.5 or less: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
22-9-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +35.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (31 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 22-9-1 (n=31), won 71.0% (95% range 53.4% to 83.9%); break-even 52.1%; ROI after the vig +35.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 12-6, +27.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 10-3-1, +46.7%
- 2021-22
- 7-1 (n=8), ROI +66.9%
- 2022-23
- 1-2 (n=3), ROI -35.8%
- 2023-24
- 4-3 (n=7), ROI +10.6%
- 2024-25
- 3-1-1 (n=4), ROI +42.6%
- 2025-26
- 7-2 (n=9), ROI +48.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.