NFL · spread · Published system
Late-season teams off scoring under 6
Post-Thanksgiving: team scored under 6 points in its last game. Bet: back them on the spread.
20-9-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +31.6%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (29 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 20-9-1 (n=29), won 69.0% (95% range 50.8% to 82.7%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +31.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 12-7-1, +19.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 8-2, +54.1%
- 2021-22
- 4-3 (n=7), ROI +8.6%
- 2022-23
- 5-2 (n=7), ROI +35.1%
- 2023-24
- 3-2-1 (n=5), ROI +13.8%
- 2024-25
- 2-2 (n=4), ROI -3.9%
- 2025-26
- 6-0 (n=6), ROI +92.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.