NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Led by 10+ at the half but lost the game: 1H spread
Led by 10+ at the half but lost the game: 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1PrevMargin": {"min": 10}, "form.prevResult": "L"} Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
16-8 since 2023, ROI after the vig +26.7%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig on a small sample (24 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 16-8 (n=24), won 66.7% (95% range 46.7% to 82.0%); break-even 52.8%; ROI after the vig +26.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 5-3, +20.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 11-5, +29.6%
- 2023-24
- 5-3 (n=8), ROI +20.8%
- 2024-25
- 5-1 (n=6), ROI +56.9%
- 2025-26
- 6-4 (n=10), ROI +13.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.