NFL · spread · MoneyLine system
Led by 10+ at the half but lost the game: full-game spread
Led by 10+ at the half but lost the game: full-game spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1PrevMargin": {"min": 10}, "form.prevResult": "L"} Bet: back them on the spread.
27-21-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +7.1%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2021–27 after the vig on a small sample (48 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 27-21-1 (n=48), won 56.3% (95% range 42.3% to 69.3%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +7.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 16-13-1, +5.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 11-8, +10.1%
- 2021-22
- 5-4 (n=9), ROI +5.4%
- 2022-23
- 6-7 (n=13), ROI -11.9%
- 2023-24
- 5-2-1 (n=7), ROI +36.4%
- 2024-25
- 3-3 (n=6), ROI -5.6%
- 2025-26
- 5-5 (n=10), ROI -5.0%
- 2026-27
- 3-0 (n=3), ROI +91.5%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.