NFL · spread · Published system
Losing-streak dogs vs much better teams
Lost last 3 SU; opponent win pct 50+ points higher; underdog of 5.5+. Bet: back them on the spread.
32-23 since 2021, ROI after the vig +11.5%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 32-23 (n=55), won 58.2% (95% range 45.0% to 70.3%); break-even 52.2%; ROI after the vig +11.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 15-12, +6.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 17-11, +16.8%
- 2021-22
- 8-4 (n=12), ROI +27.0%
- 2022-23
- 4-6 (n=10), ROI -23.5%
- 2023-24
- 3-2 (n=5), ROI +14.8%
- 2024-25
- 6-5 (n=11), ROI +5.4%
- 2025-26
- 11-6 (n=17), ROI +24.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.