NFL · spread_h1 · MoneyLine system
Lost 1H spread, covered full-game spread last game: fade 1H spread
Lost 1H spread, covered full-game spread last game: fade 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1PrevAts": "L", "form.prevAts": "W"} Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
96-82-5 since 2023, ROI after the vig +2.9%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2023–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 96-82-5 (n=178), won 53.9% (95% range 46.6% to 61.1%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +2.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 29-23, +6.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 67-59-5, +1.4%
- 2023-24
- 29-23 (n=52), ROI +6.5%
- 2024-25
- 26-27-2 (n=53), ROI -7.3%
- 2025-26
- 26-28-3 (n=54), ROI -8.0%
- 2026-27
- 15-4 (n=19), ROI +51.9%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.