NFL · spread · Published system
Non-division home dog of 7+ off a loss
NFL regular season, non-division game, home dog of 7+ off a loss: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
31-18 since 2021, ROI after the vig +20.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (49 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 31-18 (n=49), won 63.3% (95% range 49.3% to 75.3%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +20.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 21-13, +17.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 10-5, +27.4%
- 2021-22
- 9-7 (n=16), ROI +7.2%
- 2022-23
- 7-3 (n=10), ROI +34.2%
- 2023-24
- 5-3 (n=8), ROI +19.0%
- 2024-25
- 2-2 (n=4), ROI -5.2%
- 2025-26
- 8-3 (n=11), ROI +39.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.