NFL · spread · Published system
Non-division home favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 off a win
NFL regular season, non-division game, home favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 off a win: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
51-43-3 since 2021, ROI after the vig +3.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 51-43-3 (n=94), won 54.3% (95% range 44.2% to 64.0%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +3.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 26-23-2, +1.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 25-20-1, +6.2%
- 2021-22
- 6-10 (n=16), ROI -28.6%
- 2022-23
- 13-6 (n=19), ROI +31.1%
- 2023-24
- 7-7-2 (n=14), ROI -4.2%
- 2024-25
- 16-7-1 (n=23), ROI +33.2%
- 2025-26
- 9-13 (n=22), ROI -22.0%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.