NFL · spread · Published system
Non-division home favorite of 3 or less off a win
NFL regular season, non-division game, home favorite of 3 or less off a win: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
48-38-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +5.7%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 48-38-2 (n=86), won 55.8% (95% range 45.3% to 65.8%); break-even 52.8%; ROI after the vig +5.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 28-21-2, +8.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 20-17, +1.8%
- 2021-22
- 8-11 (n=19), ROI -19.8%
- 2022-23
- 5-5-1 (n=10), ROI -4.2%
- 2023-24
- 15-5-1 (n=20), ROI +41.8%
- 2024-25
- 12-9 (n=21), ROI +7.8%
- 2025-26
- 5-7 (n=12), ROI -22.4%
- 2026-27
- 3-1 (n=4), ROI +43.0%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.