NFL · spread · Published system
Non-division home favorite of 7+
NFL regular season, non-division game, home favorite of 7+: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
82-72-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +1.6%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 82-72-2 (n=154), won 53.3% (95% range 45.4% to 61.0%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +1.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 52-46-1, +1.2%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 30-26-1, +2.4%
- 2021-22
- 22-20-1 (n=42), ROI -0.6%
- 2022-23
- 16-12 (n=28), ROI +9.3%
- 2023-24
- 14-14 (n=28), ROI -4.2%
- 2024-25
- 13-11-1 (n=24), ROI +3.8%
- 2025-26
- 17-15 (n=32), ROI +1.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.