NFL · spread · Published system
Non-division home favorite of 7+ off a win
NFL regular season, non-division game, home favorite of 7+ off a win: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
51-40-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +7.0%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 51-40-2 (n=91), won 56.0% (95% range 45.8% to 65.8%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +7.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 30-27-1, +0.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 21-13-1, +17.9%
- 2021-22
- 12-12-1 (n=24), ROI -5.1%
- 2022-23
- 11-7 (n=18), ROI +16.8%
- 2023-24
- 7-8 (n=15), ROI -10.3%
- 2024-25
- 8-5-1 (n=13), ROI +17.5%
- 2025-26
- 13-8 (n=21), ROI +18.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.