NFL · spread · Published system
Non-division road favorite of 3 or less off a loss
NFL regular season, non-division game, road favorite of 3 or less off a loss: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
38-31-4 since 2021, ROI after the vig +4.9%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 38-31-4 (n=69), won 55.1% (95% range 43.4% to 66.2%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +4.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 22-19-4, +1.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 16-12, +9.8%
- 2021-22
- 8-7 (n=15), ROI +1.2%
- 2022-23
- 7-7-2 (n=14), ROI -5.1%
- 2023-24
- 7-5-2 (n=12), ROI +10.0%
- 2024-25
- 9-7 (n=16), ROI +8.2%
- 2025-26
- 7-5 (n=12), ROI +12.0%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.