NFL · spread · Published system
Non-division road favorite of 3 or less off a win
NFL regular season, non-division game, road favorite of 3 or less off a win: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
44-32-4 since 2021, ROI after the vig +9.9%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 44-32-4 (n=76), won 57.9% (95% range 46.7% to 68.3%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +9.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 25-17-3, +13.2%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 19-15-1, +5.7%
- 2021-22
- 8-1 (n=9), ROI +69.4%
- 2022-23
- 8-7-1 (n=15), ROI +1.1%
- 2023-24
- 9-9-2 (n=18), ROI -4.8%
- 2024-25
- 10-5-1 (n=15), ROI +26.4%
- 2025-26
- 9-10 (n=19), ROI -10.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.