NFL · spread · Published system
Non-Sunday late-season road favorites
After Thanksgiving, non-Sunday, road favorite -3 to -9.5. Bet: back them on the spread.
19-10-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +24.1%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (29 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 19-10-1 (n=29), won 65.5% (95% range 47.3% to 80.1%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +24.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 13-6, +29.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 6-4-1, +13.6%
- 2021-22
- 5-2 (n=7), ROI +33.8%
- 2022-23
- 6-1 (n=7), ROI +63.1%
- 2023-24
- 2-3 (n=5), ROI -23.0%
- 2024-25
- 4-1-1 (n=5), ROI +52.0%
- 2025-26
- 2-3 (n=5), ROI -24.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.