NFL · total · Published system
Overs after a close division loss, lopsided line
Lost by 3 or less to a division rival; now 7+ dog or 7+ fav: Over. Bet: bet the over.
18-7 since 2021, ROI after the vig +37.2%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (25 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 18-7 (n=25), won 72.0% (95% range 52.4% to 85.7%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +37.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 9-2, +56.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 9-5, +22.4%
- 2021-22
- 3-0 (n=3), ROI +91.2%
- 2022-23
- 4-1 (n=5), ROI +52.6%
- 2023-24
- 2-1 (n=3), ROI +26.7%
- 2024-25
- 4-2 (n=6), ROI +26.5%
- 2025-26
- 5-3 (n=8), ROI +19.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.