NFL · spread · Published system
Pre-bye home teams Week 8+
Home team in the game before its bye, Week 8 or later. Bet: back them on the spread.
32-16 since 2021, ROI after the vig +27.5%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig on a small sample (48 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 32-16 (n=48), won 66.7% (95% range 52.5% to 78.3%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +27.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 18-9, +27.2%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 14-7, +27.8%
- 2021-22
- 5-3 (n=8), ROI +18.7%
- 2022-23
- 9-2 (n=11), ROI +57.6%
- 2023-24
- 4-4 (n=8), ROI -5.9%
- 2024-25
- 9-5 (n=14), ROI +23.3%
- 2025-26
- 5-2 (n=7), ROI +36.8%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.