NFL · spread · Published system
Road favorite off a 20+ point loss
NFL road favorite whose last game was a 20+ point loss: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
13-8-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +17.4%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig on a small sample (21 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 13-8-2 (n=21), won 61.9% (95% range 40.9% to 79.3%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +17.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 8-6-1, +8.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 5-2-1, +35.6%
- 2021-22
- 4-2 (n=6), ROI +27.1%
- 2022-23
- 2-1 (n=3), ROI +26.8%
- 2023-24
- 2-3-1 (n=5), ROI -25.2%
- 2024-25
- 1-1-1 (n=2), ROI -4.7%
- 2025-26
- 1-1 (n=2), ROI -4.9%
- 2026-27
- 3-0 (n=3), ROI +89.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.