NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Slow starter (-3 1H), division game: fade 1H spread
Slow starter (-3 1H), division game: fade 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"max": -3}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "matchup.divisionGame": true} Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
59-38-2 since 2023, ROI after the vig +15.5%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 59-38-2 (n=97), won 60.8% (95% range 50.9% to 70.0%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +15.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 20-10, +26.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 39-28-2, +10.6%
- 2023-24
- 20-10 (n=30), ROI +26.5%
- 2024-25
- 21-16-1 (n=37), ROI +7.1%
- 2025-26
- 18-12-1 (n=30), ROI +14.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.