NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Slow starter (-3 1H), week 10 or later: fade 1H spread
Slow starter (-3 1H), week 10 or later: fade 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"max": -3}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "derived.nflWeek": {"min": 10}} Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
82-63-4 since 2023, ROI after the vig +7.3%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 82-63-4 (n=145), won 56.5% (95% range 48.4% to 64.3%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +7.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 26-18-1, +11.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 56-45-3, +5.3%
- 2023-24
- 26-18-1 (n=44), ROI +11.9%
- 2024-25
- 31-22-1 (n=53), ROI +10.6%
- 2025-26
- 25-23-2 (n=48), ROI -0.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.