NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Slow starter (-5) as an underdog: fade 1H spread
Slow starter (-5) as an underdog: fade 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"max": -5}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "line.spread": {"gt": 0}} Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
100-76-5 since 2023, ROI after the vig +8.5%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 100-76-5 (n=176), won 56.8% (95% range 49.4% to 63.9%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +8.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 39-24-1, +18.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 61-52-4, +3.0%
- 2023-24
- 39-24-1 (n=63), ROI +18.3%
- 2024-25
- 26-24-2 (n=50), ROI -1.6%
- 2025-26
- 35-28-2 (n=63), ROI +6.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.