NFL · spread · Published system
SNF home teams off a win
Sunday night home team that won its last game. Bet: back them on the spread.
27-23-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +3.3%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 27-23-1 (n=50), won 54.0% (95% range 40.4% to 67.0%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +3.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 16-14, +1.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 11-9-1, +5.5%
- 2021-22
- 7-6 (n=13), ROI +2.5%
- 2022-23
- 4-6 (n=10), ROI -23.2%
- 2023-24
- 5-2 (n=7), ROI +36.6%
- 2024-25
- 6-6-1 (n=12), ROI -3.2%
- 2025-26
- 5-3 (n=8), ROI +18.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.